Sunday 25 September 2011

Ambient Panic

"I myself am a pessimist and I feel that by 2050, 2080, 2100 for sure, the Earth’s population will have been decimated by catastrophic climate events that will see more than 8 billion people die and leave only 200,000 souls eking out a sad existence in those regions above 45 degrees latitude."
That's Dan Bloom in a letter published in the Taipei Times today.

With fairly precise 100-year predictions like that conditioned by the expression "I feel that... for sure", he has clearly spent too much time listening to Radiohead records ("We're not scaremongering, this is really happening!"); even the IPCC themselves estimate sea level rises of only a foot or two - with over a century for people to adapt.

The constant repetition of this kind of argument in newspapers and TV shows - essentially, that the bad effects of global warming are not only certain but that they will also be catastrophic and far outweigh any possible benefits - is surely intended to induce an ambient sense of panic. Ambient panic is necessary to build up local popular support for the participation of local, national governments in a systemic attempt to manage the global economy so as to mitigate this "certain" and "catastrophic" externality.

Yet the Left have never learned from the collapse of Soviet Communism**: attempts by governments to manage the economy in a top-down fashion always necessarily induce distortions that, the worse they become over time, make systemic collapse more likely*.

Since people all over the world will be affected by global warming differently (some negative, some positive), and will need to adapt in different ways, the meta-contextual solution to the problem is simple: freedom. People will need freedom to adapt to any climatic changes just as we require freedom to adapt to economic and social changes now - the necessity of freedom to the human condition is not "ahistorical", as some "scholars" would put it, but rather, trans-historical: people have always needed freedom and have usually sought to deny it to each other. This evil has got to stop. We must de-engineer the Statist apparatus everywhere to allow more political-economic freedom.

The longer people cling to this idea that an expansion of State powers is necessary to prevent catastrophe, the more distant will the value of freedom become and the more likely it is that little pools of freedom like Taiwan will be sucked up in the drought imposed by newly calibrated forms of the fascist impulse.

And freedom is the only real defense policy for Taiwanese people.

*We are seeing this now as a consequence of debased monetary systems having been rigged to fiscal expansionism for decades. The Left will of course simply lie about it and blame the coming chaos on "evil bankers" and "evil consumerism" and so on.

**I think it is because they have a blindspot; a very specific form of madness: the sociopathic need to control other people's lives. The proposition that society (i.e. other people) must be managed is simply axiomatic to them - I can only suppose this is because of that psychological blindspot they seem to have, which enables them to denounce slavery in one breath and then argue for capital controls in the next.

5 comments:

  1. Michael,

    Glad you liked my lettet today. Re: "That's Dan Bloom in a letter published in the Taipei Times today." SEE MY CAPS BELOW FOR COMMENTS.

    If you read it again slowly and carefully, you will see that I was joking, I was exaggerating on purpose to make a point. I thought you would get it. I am sure if you do read it again, you will see my humor there. I was not being serious. Read it again first.

    And smile, yes, i do love radiohead, and i agree with Private Frazier on Dads Army in BBC Tv show long ago, that "we are doomed, doomed..."

    Humor, Michael, humor. There's nothing to worry about. The future will be fine. The scaremongers are out there, but I am not one of them. You mis-read the letter. Look again.

    Cheers,

    Dan

    With fairly precise 100-year predictions like that conditioned by the expression "I feel that... for sure", he has clearly spent too much time listening to Radiohead records ("We're not scaremongering, this is really happening!"); even the IPCC themselves estimate sea level rises of only a foot or two - with over a century for people to adapt.

    YES WE WILL ADAPT FOR SURE, PLENTY OF TIME. I AGREE.

    The constant repetition of this kind of argument in newspapers and TV shows - essentially, that the bad effects of global warming are not only certain but that they will also be catastrophic and far outweigh any possible benefits - is surely intended to induce an ambient sense of panic. BUT NOT ON MY PART. I AM A HUMORIST FIRST AND FOREMOST, NEITHER LEFTWING NOR DOOMSDAY SCANERMONGER.

    Ambient panic is necessary to build up local popular support for the participation of local, national governments in a systemic attempt to manage the global economy so as to mitigate this "certain" and "catastrophic" externality.
    WHAT? I AM NOT ON ANY COMMITTEE LIKE. I AM A FICTION WRITER and AM WRITING A FICTION BOOK NOVEL ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE, SCI FI THREILLER, PURE ESCAPE NOVEL, THATs ALL.

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  2. "If you read it again slowly and carefully, you will see that I was joking, I was exaggerating on purpose to make a point. I thought you would get it."

    The thing is, I expect that sort of 100-year prediction from some of the people at the TT.

    Take the criticisms as directed at the TT eds then, as I doubt they'd have read it as satire either.

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  3. Yo, Dan - are you reading this yet?

    I hope you're going to clean up the mess you made.

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  4. Yes, i read Matt's good letter and i was glad to see it. he makes very sensible points. and yes, i am now going to try to clean up the mess i made..... BUt even worse, now our dear fiend, er, strike that, friend, Bruno Walther AGREES with your earlier asssesment that my letter was totally one for the books and i should be arrtesed and put in climate science jail for life, in Germany i assume,

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  5. Bruno wrote, without asking me first what my letter was all about and all he had to do was send over a quick email. "It is lamentable that more and more science fiction makes it into the letters section of the Taipei Times. ........we now have an environmental scare story in Dan Bloom’s recent letter. [His letter is] not based on science, but on fiction.

    [Dan's letter did not make] any reference to a scientific publication or a book based on scientific publications, e.g. the book ”The World in 2050” by Laurence Smith. [Dan replies: Bruno IN FACT, DR SMITH IS MY FRIEND AND HE KNOWS ALL ABOUT MY POLAR CITIES THEMES AND HE UNDERSTANDS EXACTLY WHAT I AM DOING AS A MEDIA WAKE UP CALL TO TAKE ACTION TODAY....AND MY LETTER WAS WRITTEN AFTER READING LARRY'S VERY GOOD INTERVIEW THAT APPEARED THE DAY BEFORE IN THE TAIPEI TIMES IN FACT. HE EVER DISCUSSED POLAR CITIES DURING THE Q and A PERIOD IF YOU WERE THERE....].......As Professor Smith himself stated in his excellent talk yesterday, global warming is a scientific fact (the evidence also well summarized in these letters) while Dan Bloom’s assertion NOT AN ASSERTION, WHERE DID I EVER ASSERT THAT? AND NOT A PREDICTION EITHER, THIS IS A PR WAKE UP CALL BRUNO TO TAKE ACTION NOW......YOU COMPLETELY MISSED THE POINT....].....that we will all live in ‘desolate polar cities’ by the year 2080 evoked but a slight chuckle from Professor Smith. LARRY CHUCKED BECAUSE HE KNOWS ME AND HE KNOWS WHAT I AM REALLY DOING WITH THE POLAR CITIES IDEAS AND HE KNOWS I AM NOT PREDICTING ANYTHING BUT TRYING TO TAKE PEOPLE UP WHO STIL NEED WAKING UP, and of course NOT YOU, BRUNO AND NOT LARRY.....HE COMPLETELY UNDERSTANDS WHAT MY POLAR CITIES WORK IS ALL ABOUT AND HE SUPPORTS ME, BELIEVE IT OR NOT. I WAS THE FIRST PERSON IN THE WORLD TO BLOG ABOUT HIS EXCELLENT BOOK AND WE EMAIL OFTEN..........Dan Bloom does not cite any reputable scientific source for his [assertions], BRUNO, I WAS NOT ASSERTING ANYTHING I WAS DOING SOMETHING VERY DIFFERENT WHICH YOU SEEMED TO HAVE MISSED COMPLETELY.......and is therefore in the business of story-telling, not of developing credible future scenarios based on facts and serious scientific modelling. BRUNO, YOU SHOULD HAVE ASKED ME FIRST BEFORE SHOOTING ME HERE. YOU MIS-READ THAT LETTER 101 percent....SIGH

    ReplyDelete

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